prediction market

how we're currently thinking about market mechanics

overview

the system will value fap content in real time using a prediction market model. with continuous uploads possible - both new and existing content compete over a 24‑hour cycle, with votes time-weighted to ensure fairness for late uploads.

some technical details

• continuous uploads: users can upload content at any time. All submissions join a shared 24‑hour cycle where they vie for popularity.

• vote-based outcome: community votes determine popularity. the content with the highest votes wins, and its share holders receive a portion of the daily reward pool. might also include views, likes etc. with appropriate weights to help determine the outcome.

• time-weighted voting: votes are weighted based on content age to balance early exposure with competitive fairness for later submissions.

• dynamic market mechanics:

  • multinomial market & LMSR: all content competes in a unified market using continuous pricing (via a Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule mechanism) to reflect real‑time probability estimates.

  • bonding curves: might also use bonding curves to provide automated liquidity and dynamic price discovery. prices adjust continuously based on demand.

• fair play & anti-manipulation: use of wallet reputation weighting, transaction fees, and limits could help safeguard against gaming tactics like sybil attacks, vote manipulation and rapid price pumping.

and if you just wanted to know how to goon - first you get a sock...